What Florida's Front Loading Means To You

Florida's Governor, Charlie Crist (R-FL), signed into law yesterday a bill containing changes to Florida's controversial voting procedures. Included in Florida House Bill 537 was a provision moving Florida's presidential primary to January 29th, a full week ahead of the earliest date allowed by both the DNC and RNC. This is a blatant example of what political analysts term "front loading," the phenomenon of states moving their primaries forward in the hopes of influencing the candidates chosen for national political party presidential nominations.

Front loading is nothing more than political theater at its finest. Should Florida actually hold its primary before the earliest date allowed by the DNC/RNC, they would lose 50% of their state's delegates to the DNC/RNC. The state's delegates are those people who vote to elect their party's nominee for President. Additionally, any candidate that officially campaigns for President in a state before February 5th of the election year cannot receive any of that state's votes for their party's nomination (Ed's Note: Dan informed me that only the RNC has this specific rule). That being said, the DNC/RNC may choose not to follow their own rules. It probably depends on if they see any advantage for their favored candidates.

If the major party committees choose not to follow their stated rules and allow candidates to campaign early, and allow states to hold early primaries, this will give a decided advantage to candidates with lots of money because of Florida. Florida is an important swing state, considered a microcosm of America. You can generally tell how an election will go by early polling in Florida. Florida's panhandle is in the U.S. Central Time Zone, and largely conservative; the peninsula is in the U.S. Eastern Time Zone, and largely liberal with conservative counties peppered throughout it - distributed politically very similarly to the U.S. as a whole. Florida is one of the most expensive states to campaign in, simply because of the diverse and large population. Campaign money is primarily spent on newspaper and television campaigns. The larger the population, the more expensive it is to advertise in that market. Additionally, the more diverse the population is in a market, the more outlets for advertising there are (e.g. more newspapers and more TV stations to target). Florida having their primary on January 29th would force candidates to concentrate there earlier than they normally would, possibly ignoring other states because of their later primaries.

It is hard to say at this point if this "front loading" will be allowed by the RNC/DNC, and what effect it might have on U.S. elections if it is allowed. With the issues the United States has had with its two most recent presidential elections, (Florida in 2000, Ohio in 2004) it might be wiser to leave things as they are. We don't want the rest of the world to feel as if the U.S. is a banana republic with the same election problems you see in 3rd world countries. We're having a tough enough time with our credibility as a democracy as it is.

For more information on this subject click here, here, or here.